Climate Effects on Subsoil Carbon Loss Mediated by Soil Chemistry

Subsoils store at least 50% of soil organic carbon (SOC) globally, but climate change may accelerate subsoil SOC (SOC_sub) decomposition and amplify SOC-climate feedbacks. The climate sensitivity of SOC_sub decomposition varies across systems, but we lack the mechanistic links needed to predict system-specific SOC_sub vulnerability as a function of measurable properties at larger scales. Here, we show that soil chemical properties exert significant control over SOC_sub decomposition under elevated temperature and moisture in subsoils collected across terrestrial National Ecological Observatory Network sites. Compared to a suite of soil and site-level variables, a divalent base cation-to-reactive metal gradient, linked to dominant mechanisms of SOC_sub mineral protection, was the best predictor of the climate sensitivity of SOC decomposition. The response was "U"-shaped, showing higher sensitivity to temperature and moisture when either extractable base cations or reactive metals were highest. However, SOC_sub in base cation-dominated subsoils was more sensitive to moisture than temperature, with the opposite relationship demonstrated in reactive metal-dominated subsoils. These observations highlight the importance of system-specific mechanisms of mineral stabilization in the prediction of SOC_sub vulnerability to climate drivers. Our observations also form the basis for a spatially explicit, scalable, and mechanistically grounded tool for improved prediction of SOC_sub response to climate change.