[Trend analysis on morbidity and mortality of pancreatic cancer in China, 2005-2015]

Objective: To analyze the trend of morbidity and mortality of pancreatic cancer in China from 2005 to 2015 and estimate the related age, period and cohort effect, respectively. Methods: Joinpoint regression analysis was used to analyze the trend of morbidity rate and mortality rate of pancreatic cancer during 2005-2015 and calculate the annual percentage change and average annual percentage change based on the data in the annual report of China Cancer Registry. Population aged 20-84 years was fitted by the Age-Period-Cohort model to estimate the effect parameters of age, period and cohort. Results: The trend variations of the crude morbidity rate and crude mortality rate of pancreatic cancer were consistent. The morbidity rate of pancreatic cancer firstly increased before 2008 and then decreased. The morbidity rate and mortality rate of pancreatic cancer were higher in men than women, and higher in urban areas than in rural areas. From 2005 to 2015, the overall age-standardized morbidity rate of pancreatic cancer increased by 2.78% annually and the overall age standardized mortality rate of pancreatic cancer increased by 2.24% annually. The age standardized morbidity of pancreatic cancer in rural men changed more rapidly, with an average annual increase of 3.74%, and the age standardized mortality rate of pancreatic cancer in urban men changed more rapidly, with an average annual increase of 3.57%. The age effect on the morbidity and mortality of pancreatic cancer increased with age, and the effect was most obvious in age group 70-80 years, the period effect increased over time and the cohort effect decreased with year, but rebound or fluctuation was observed after 1976. Conclusions: The morbidity rate and mortality rate of pancreatic cancer in China increased slightly in past decades. Strategies on effective prevention and control of pancreatic cancer should be developed in the future.