Estimating Associations Between Annual Concentrations of Particulate Matter and Mortality in the United States, Using...

Exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is an established risk factor for human mortality. However, previous US studies have been limited to select cities or regions or to population subsets (e.g., older adults).

Here, we demonstrate how to use the novel geostatistical method Bayesian maximum entropy to obtain estimates of PM2.5 concentrations in all contiguous US counties, 2000-2016. We then demonstrate how one could use these estimates in a traditional epidemiologic analysis examining the association between PM2.5 and rates of all-cause, cardiovascular, respiratory, and (as a negative control outcome) accidental mortality.

We estimated that, for a 1 log(μg/m3) increase in PM2.5 concentration, the conditional all-cause mortality incidence rate ratio (IRR) was 1.029 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.006, 1.053). This implies that the rate of all-cause mortality at 10 µg/m3 would be 1.020 times the rate at 5 µg/m3. IRRs were larger for cardiovascular mortality than for all-cause mortality in all gender and race-ethnicity groups. We observed larger IRRs for all-cause, nonaccidental, and respiratory mortality in Black non-Hispanic Americans than White non-Hispanic Americans. However, our negative control analysis indicated the possibility for unmeasured confounding.

We used a novel method that allowed us to estimate PM2.5 concentrations in all contiguous US counties and obtained estimates of the association between PM2.5 and mortality comparable to previous studies. Our analysis provides one example of how Bayesian maximum entropy could be used in epidemiologic analyses; future work could explore other ways to use this approach to inform important public health questions.