A Hybrid Framework for Direct CO₂ Emissions Quantification in China's Construction Sector

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Economics
• Energy Policy

Background:

• Inconsistent carbon emission quantifications in China due to varied standards and methods.
• Lack of China-specific technology and databases hinders comprehensive CO2 emission assessment.
• Need for accurate regional direct CO2 emission data in the construction industry.

Purpose of the Study:

• To comprehensively quantify regional direct CO2 emissions in China's construction industry.
• To develop regression models integrating economic and environmental data for emission analysis.
• To identify key energy sources and regional emission hotspots within the industry.

Main Methods:

• Collected provincial energy yearbook data (1997-2015) on fossil fuels and electricity.
• Integrated econometric data: total construction output, cement, and steel consumption.
• Developed regression models for six regional construction industries in China.

Main Results:

• North China identified as the primary source of direct CO2 emissions (>30%); Southeast China contributed the least.
• Coal and crude oil remain dominant energy sources despite a gradual shift to alternatives.
• Cement and steel consumption showed a significant predictive relationship with CO2 emissions in five regions.

Conclusions:

• Tailored policies are needed for technological improvements to boost renewable energy in construction.
• Developed models can aid initial carbon emission quantification for similar industries.
• Future research should extend economic indicators for more robust emission models.