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Evaluating backward probability model under various hydrogeologic and hydrologic conditions.

Hyoun-Tae Hwang1, Roseanna M Neupauer2, Sung-Wook Jeen3

  • 1Aquanty, Inc., 564 Weber Street North, Unit 2, Waterloo, ON, N2L 5C6, Canada; Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1, Canada.

Journal of Contaminant Hydrology
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PubMed
Summary

This study verifies a backward probability model for contaminant source identification. The model accurately identifies contaminant sources in homogeneous conditions and shows reliable backward travel times in complex heterogeneous scenarios.

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Science
  • Hydrogeology
  • Geochemistry

Background:

  • Contaminant source identification is crucial for effective remediation and water resource management.
  • The backward probability model estimates contaminant source locations and release times.
  • Rigorous verification of the backward probability model is essential for reliable application.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To present a model verification framework for the backward probability model.
  • To evaluate the model's reliability under various hydrogeologic conditions, from simple to complex.
  • To assess the model's performance in transient saturated and variably-saturated flow.

Main Methods:

  • A stepwise verification approach was employed, starting with simple 1D homogeneous problems.
  • Model verification involved comparisons with previous studies under steady-state and transient flow.
  • Complex heterogeneous conditions were assessed by comparing forward and backward probability simulations.

Main Results:

  • The backward probability model demonstrated good performance for homogeneous problems.
  • For heterogeneous problems, slight differences in backward travel times were observed due to solute decay and boundary conditions.
  • Despite minor travel time variations, the backward travel time at maximum probability was well reproduced in heterogeneous scenarios.

Conclusions:

  • The backward probability model is a reliable tool for contaminant source identification, particularly in homogeneous settings.
  • The model's ability to reproduce maximum probability travel times suggests its utility in complex hydrogeologic environments.
  • The presented verification framework supports the robust application of the backward probability model in environmental assessments.