Promoting farsighted decisions via episodic future thinking: A meta-analysis

Area of Science:

• Cognitive Psychology
• Decision Science
• Behavioral Economics

Background:

• Episodic future thinking (EFT) is hypothesized to encourage decisions favoring long-term benefits over immediate gratification.
• Understanding EFT's influence on intertemporal choices is crucial for behavioral interventions.

Purpose of the Study:

• To meta-analyze the empirical evidence on the impact of EFT on intertemporal choices with monetary or health consequences.
• To identify factors moderating the effectiveness of EFT in decision-making.

Main Methods:

• A comprehensive meta-analysis was conducted on 174 effect sizes from 48 studies, including unpublished experiments.
• A three-level meta-analytic model was employed to assess the overall effect size and heterogeneity.

Main Results:

• A medium-sized significant effect (g = .44) of EFT on intertemporal choices was found, robust to publication bias.
• EFT's impact was stronger for positive, vivid, and choice-relevant imagined events.
• EFT demonstrated a greater effect in impulsive populations, suggesting a role in mitigating maladaptive choices.

Conclusions:

• EFT significantly influences farsighted decision-making, distinct from other future-thinking modes.
• The findings support EFT as a potential intervention for individuals prone to myopic decision-making.
• EFT's efficacy extends from laboratory settings to real-world choices, promoting long-term goal achievement.