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Climate causes shifts in grey seal phenology by modifying age structure
James C Bull1, Owen R Jones2,3, Luca Börger1
1Department of Biosciences, Swansea University, Swansea SA2 8PP, UK.
Proceedings. Biological Sciences
|December 1, 2021
Summary
Climate change alters grey seal pupping seasons. Warmer seas correlate with earlier pupping, but maternal age structure, not direct temperature effects, drives individual shifts, impacting population dynamics.
Area of Science:
- Ecology
- Climate Change Biology
- Population Dynamics
Background:
- Phenological shifts are key indicators and drivers of climate change impacts on ecosystems.
- Understanding the causal links between climate variables and phenology is crucial for predicting ecosystem responses.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the relationship between sea surface temperature and the pupping season phenology of grey seals (Halichoerus grypus).
- To determine the mechanisms driving phenological shifts in a long-lived, age-structured species.
- To explore the role of population age structure in mediating climate change effects on phenology.
Main Methods:
- Combined annual population census data and individual longitudinal data from 1992-2018 for grey seals.
- Quantified the correlation between sea surface temperature and pupping season timing.
- Utilized a matrix population model to assess the influence of age distribution on phenological shifts.
Main Results:
- A 2°C increase in sea temperature was linked to an approximate seven-day advance in the grey seal pupping season at the population level.
- Maternal age, rather than direct sea temperature, was the primary factor influencing individual pupping dates.
- Warmer years were associated with a higher average age of mothers, indicating a shift in population age structure.
Conclusions:
- Phenological shifts in grey seals are significantly influenced by changes in population age structure, mediated by climate warming.
- The observed phenological changes may also involve transient population dynamics, such as immigration, not fully explained by stable age distribution models.
- This study reveals a novel mechanism for climate-driven phenological shifts in long-lived, structured populations, with implications for ecological resilience and management.
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