Identifying low-PM_2.5 exposure commuting routes for cyclists through modeling with the random forest algorithm based...

Cyclists can be easily exposed to traffic-related pollutants due to riding on or close to the road during commuting in cities. PM_2.5 has been identified as one of the major pollutants emitted by vehicles and associated with cardiopulmonary and respiratory diseases. As routing has been suggested to reduce the exposures for cyclists, in this study, PM_2.5 was monitored with low-cost sensors during commuting periods to develop models for identifying low exposure routes in three Asian cities: Taipei, Osaka, and Seoul. The models for mapping the PM_2.5 in the cities were developed by employing the random forest algorithm in a two-stage modeling approach. The land use features to explain spatial variation of PM_2.5 were obtained from the open-source land use database, OpenStreetMap. The total length of the monitoring routes ranged from 101.36 to 148.22 km and the average PM_2.5 ranged from 13.51 to 15.40 μg/m³ among the cities. The two-stage models had the standard k-fold cross-validation (CV) R² of 0.93, 0.74, and 0.84 in Taipei, Osaka, and Seoul, respectively. To address spatial autocorrelation, a spatial cross-validation approach applying a distance restriction of 100 m between the model training and testing data was employed. The over-optimistic estimates on the predictions were thus prevented, showing model CV-R² of 0.91, 0.67, and 0.78 respectively in Taipei, Osaka, and Seoul. The comparisons between the shortest-distance and lowest-exposure routes showed that the largest percentage of reduced averaged PM_2.5 exposure could reach 32.1% with the distance increases by 37.8%. Given the findings in this study, routing behavior should be encouraged. With the daily commuting trips expanded, the cumulative effect may become significant on the chronic exposures over time. Therefore, a route planning tool for reducing the exposures shall be developed and promoted to the public.