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Risk factors for developing COVID-19: a population-based longitudinal study (COVIDENCE UK).
Hayley Holt1, Mohammad Talaei1, Matthew Greenig1
1Barts and The London School of Medicine and Dentistry, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK.
Thorax
|December 1, 2021
Summary
Asian/Asian British ethnicity and raised body mass index (BMI) increase COVID-19 odds, while atopic disease decreases them. These findings clarify susceptibility factors beyond severe disease risk.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Infectious Disease Research
- Public Health
Background:
- Known risk factors for severe COVID-19 include older age, male sex, obesity, certain ethnicities, and pre-existing medical conditions.
- The influence of these factors on initial susceptibility to developing COVID-19 remains uncertain.
- Understanding susceptibility factors is crucial for targeted prevention strategies.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate potential risk factors associated with the odds of developing COVID-19.
- To differentiate between risk factors for susceptibility and those for disease severity.
- To provide evidence-based insights into COVID-19 transmission dynamics.
Main Methods:
- Prospective, population-based cohort study (COVIDENCE UK) conducted from May 2020 to February 2021.
- Baseline and monthly follow-up questionnaires collected data on potential risk factors and incident COVID-19 cases.
- Logistic regression models were used to calculate multivariable-adjusted odds ratios (aORs) for identified associations.
Main Results:
- Asian/Asian British ethnicity (aOR 2.28) and raised body mass index (BMI) (aOR 1.50 for BMI 25.0-30.0; aOR 1.39 for BMI >30.0) were independently associated with increased odds of developing COVID-19.
- Household overcrowding, social contact frequency, indoor public place visits, and frontline occupations also increased COVID-19 odds.
- Atopic disease showed an independent association with decreased odds of developing COVID-19 (aOR 0.75).
Conclusions:
- After adjusting for exposure factors, specific ethnicities (Asian/Asian British) and raised BMI are linked to higher COVID-19 susceptibility.
- Atopic disease appears to be a protective factor against developing COVID-19.
- Age, sex, and other medical conditions did not show independent associations with COVID-19 susceptibility in this cohort.
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