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Updated: Oct 11, 2025

A Data-Driven Approach to Quantifying Immune States in Sepsis

A Data-Driven Approach to Quantifying Immune States in Sepsis

Published on: February 7, 2025

A dynamical map to describe COVID-19 epidemics.

Eduardo V M Dos Reis¹, Marcelo A Savi¹

¹Department of Mechanical Engineering, Center for Nonlinear Mechanics, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, COPPE, P.O. Box 68 503, Rio de Janeiro, RJ Brazil.

The European Physical Journal. Special Topics

|December 1, 2021

Summary

This study introduces a new dynamical map to model COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) spread, incorporating vaccination. The simplified model aids in strategic decision-making by estimating key epidemic indicators and evaluating vaccination strategies.

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Area of Science:

Epidemiology
Mathematical Modeling
Public Health

Background:

COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) epidemics pose significant public health challenges.
Understanding epidemic dynamics is crucial for effective public health interventions and strategic decision-making.
Existing models may require simplification for easier parameter adjustment and broader applicability.

Purpose of the Study:

To propose a novel dynamical map for describing COVID-19 epidemics.
To incorporate the effect of vaccination into epidemic modeling.
To provide a simplified yet effective tool for analyzing epidemic scenarios and supporting strategic decisions.

Main Methods:

Development of a discrete-time dynamical map based on the SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered) model.
Inclusion of vaccinated populations and simplification to three key variables: infected, cumulative infected, and vaccinated.
Utilizing algebraic equations for a reduced-variable dynamical description.

Main Results:

The proposed map accurately captures key COVID-19 epidemic dynamics, including multi-wave patterns observed in Germany, Italy, and Brazil.
The model facilitates analytical calculations for crucial indicators such as infection rate, herd immunity threshold, and mortality.
Simulations demonstrate the effectiveness of vaccination strategies in controlling epidemic spread.

Conclusions:

The novel dynamical map offers a simplified and effective approach to modeling COVID-19 epidemics.
The model's ability to perform analytical calculations supports informed strategic decision-making in public health.
Vaccination is a critical component in managing and controlling the COVID-19 pandemic.