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Modelling long-term COVID-19 impacts on the U.S. workforce of 2029.

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The COVID-19 pandemic will reshape the future labor force by 2029, increasing demand for cognitive skills and accelerating teleworking. Job losses will disproportionately affect workers without a bachelor's degree, necessitating continuous learning.

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Area of Science:

  • Labor Economics
  • Future of Work Studies
  • Sociology of Employment

Background:

  • Global employment faces disruption from automation, technological shifts, and green energy transitions.
  • The COVID-19 pandemic presents unprecedented, long-term challenges to the labor market, overshadowing other trends.
  • Existing research primarily focuses on the pandemic's short-term labor market effects.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze the anticipated long-term impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the labor force by 2029.
  • To compare original labor projections with COVID-adjusted projections from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  • To identify shifts in skill demand, job displacement, and the nature of work.

Main Methods:

  • Comparative analysis of original 2029 labor projections versus COVID-adjusted projections.
  • Utilizing data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics for labor market forecasts.
  • Examining changes in skill requirements, job roles, and workforce demographics.

Main Results:

  • Projected increase in demand for most labor skills and knowledge, with a shift towards cognitive activities.
  • Significant job displacement (over 91%) by 2029 is anticipated among workers lacking a bachelor's degree.
  • A shift in demand for degrees from business to computer and STEM fields; increased "socialness" of labor in many industries.
  • Accelerated adoption of teleworking and a slight decrease in workforce automation rates.

Conclusions:

  • The pandemic necessitates a re-evaluation of workforce skills, emphasizing cognitive abilities and continuous learning.
  • Future workforce health and safety concerns will shift from physical injuries to illnesses linked to sedentary work.
  • Workers will require lifelong learning and skill maintenance strategies to adapt to evolving job demands.