Temporal Trends in Glioblastoma Survival: Progress then Plateau

Survival of patients with glioblastoma (GBM) increased in the 2000s, most prominently after the addition of temozolomide to the standard-of-care treatment protocol. The reason for subsequent improvements in survival in the late 2000s and early 2010s was less clear, with explanations including the introduction of bevacizumab, better surgical methods, and advances in supportive care. It is uncertain whether the trend of improving population-level survival has continued.

Data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program was analyzed comparing survival of adult GBM patients diagnosed in consecutive 3-year periods from 2000 to 2017. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox proportional hazards models were used.

A total of 38,352 patients diagnosed with GBM between 2000 and 2017 met inclusion criteria. Median survival and percent survival to 12 and 24 months all progressively increased between 2000 and 2011. There were no significant differences in survival comparing 2009-2011 with 2012-2014 or 2015-2017. During the 2015-2017 period, median survival was 11 months, with 12 and 24-month survival proportions of 45.7% (95% confidence interval, 44.5-47.0) and 19.0% (95% confidence interval, 18.6-21.2), respectively.

After a period of progressive improvement in GBM survival between 2000 and 2011, survival plateaued. Subsequent advances since 2011 have not yet been translated to improved survival on the population-level as of 2017.