Economic evaluation using dynamic transition modeling of ebola virus vaccination in lower-and-middle-income countries

With the increasing occurrence of infectious diseases in lower-and-middle-income countries (LMICs), emergency preparedness is essential for rapid response and mitigation. Economic evaluations of mitigation technologies and strategies have been recommended for inclusion in emergency preparedness plans. We aimed to perform an economic evaluation using dynamic transition modeling of ebola virus disease (EVD) vaccination in a hypothetical community of 1,000 persons in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

Using a modified SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered, with Death added [SEIR-D]) model that accounted for death and epidemiological data from an EVD outbreak in the DRC, we modeled the transmission of EVD in a hypothetical population of 1,000. With our model, we estimated the cost-effectiveness of an EVD vaccine and an EVD vaccination intervention.

The results showed vaccinating 50% of the population at risk prevented 670 cases, 538 deaths, and 22,022 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). The vaccine was found to be cost-effective with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $95.63 per DALY averted. We also determined the minimum required vaccination coverage for cost-effectiveness to be 40%. Sensitivity analysis showed our model to be fairly robust, assuring relatively consistent results even with variations in such input parameters as cost of screening, as well as transmission, infection, incubation, and case fatality rates.

EVD vaccination in our hypothetical population was found to be cost-effective from the payer perspective. Our model presents an efficient and reliable approach for conducting economic evaluations of infectious disease interventions as part of an emergency preparedness plan.