Prediction of severe reflux after oesophageal cancer surgery

A common and burdensome consequence of oesophagectomy for cancer is reflux. This study aimed to develop a risk prediction model for postoperative reflux using variables available at the time of surgery enabling tailored preventive symptom management.

Data were obtained from a nationwide, population-based cohort of 921 adults who underwent oesophagectomy for cancer between 2013 and 2019. Among 569 eligible patients, 383 (67%) participated in the study. Patient and clinical characteristics were retrieved from national health registries and medical records. Postoperative reflux was self-reported 1 year after surgery in the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaire module for gastroesophageal symptoms. Multivariable regression models provided odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). The performance of the model was evaluated using the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve.

Female sex (OR 2.24, 95% CI: 1.00-5.00), preoperative reflux (OR 2.99, 95% CI: 1.61-5.52), and preoperative body mass index ≥30 (OR 2.45, 95% CI: 1.32-4.54) increased the risk of postoperative reflux. A model based on age, sex, preoperative reflux, body mass index, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and ventricle substitute predicted 72% of the severe cases.

Female sex, preoperative reflux, and preoperative body mass index increased the risk of postoperative reflux. A combination of readily available patient and preoperative clinical variables showed fairly good accuracy in predicting postoperative reflux after oesophagectomy. The clinical risk prediction model may be helpful for early symptom management but needs to be externally validated before wider use.