Avoiding extinction under nonlinear environmental change: models of evolutionary rescue with plasticity

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Evolutionary Biology
• Conservation Biology

Background:

• Rapid environmental changes threaten species with extinction.
• Species persistence relies on phenotypic plasticity or evolutionary adaptation (evolutionary rescue).
• Existing evolutionary rescue theories often assume linear environmental change.

Purpose of the Study:

• To model species' responses to accelerating or decelerating environmental change.
• To investigate the impact of non-linear environmental change on extinction risk.
• To assess the role of phenotypic plasticity and genetic variation in evolutionary rescue under changing environments.

Main Methods:

• Developed a theoretical model simulating species adapting to environmental change.
• Incorporated parameters for accelerating, decelerating, and linear environmental change.
• Included mechanisms for within-generational and transgenerational phenotypic plasticity.
• Considered the availability of adaptive genetic variation for evolutionary rescue.

Main Results:

• Accelerating or decelerating environmental change increases extinction risk compared to linear change at the same mean rate.
• The severity of increased extinction risk depends on the rate of environmental change.
• Sufficiently strong phenotypic plasticity or abundant adaptive genetic variation can mitigate increased extinction risk.
• Insufficient plasticity or genetic variation exacerbates extinction risk under non-linear change.

Conclusions:

• Non-linear environmental change poses a greater threat to species than previously assumed.
• Phenotypic plasticity and genetic variation are critical factors for species survival in rapidly changing environments.
• Conservation strategies must consider the dynamics of environmental change for effective evolutionary rescue.