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Developing and verifying a multivariate model to predict the survival probability after coronary artery bypass

Chengzhuo Li1, Fengshuo Xu1, Didi Han1

  • 1Department of Clinical Research, The First Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University, Guangdong 510630, China; School of Public Health, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Shaanxi 710061, China.

Heart & Lung : the Journal of Critical Care
|December 7, 2021
PubMed

Insights

This study developed a new nomogram to predict survival after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) for coronary atherosclerosis patients. The tool uses readily available indicators for personalized long-term prognosis.

Area of Science:

  • Cardiology
  • Medical Informatics
  • Biostatistics

Background:

  • Coronary atherosclerosis is a leading global cardiovascular disease.
  • Coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) improves survival but post-operative prognosis is uncertain.
  • Accurate prognostic tools are crucial for managing patients with coronary atherosclerosis.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a novel nomogram for predicting 1-, 2-, and 3-year survival rates after CABG.
  • To identify key indicators for predicting post-CABG survival in coronary atherosclerosis patients.
  • To create a personalized tool for clinical decision-making and prognosis prediction.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III (MIMIC-III) database.
  • Employed multivariate Cox regression to identify risk factors.
  • Evaluated model performance using C-index, NRI, IDI, and AUROC, comparing it with SOFA and SAPS II scores.

Main Results:

  • Identified age, marital status, BMI, creatinine, platelet count, RDW, heart rate, ICU stay, and Elixhauser Comorbidity Index as significant risk factors.
  • The nomogram demonstrated strong predictive performance with C-indexes exceeding 0.75.
  • The nomogram outperformed SAPS II and SOFA scores in predicting patient survival.

Conclusions:

  • The developed nomogram is a valuable, personalized tool for predicting long-term prognosis after CABG.
  • Clinicians can use this nomogram to guide treatment decisions for coronary atherosclerosis patients.
  • The nomogram enhances the ability to predict patient outcomes following CABG surgery.
Abstract

Keywords:
CABGMIMIC-IIINomogramPrognosis

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