Annual Body Weight Change and Prognosis in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

Low body mass index (BMI) has been reported to be associated with poor prognosis in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). In contrast, a detailed analysis of the association between body weight change over time and prognosis is not sufficient, particularly in Japanese patients with COPD who have been reported to be much thinner compared to Westerners. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between annual body weight change and long-term prognosis in Japanese patients with COPD in two independent cohorts.

We analyzed 279 patients with COPD who participated in the Hokkaido COPD cohort study as a discovery cohort. We divided participants into three groups according to quartiles of annual body weight change calculated by the data from the first 5 years: weight loss group (<-0.17 kg/year), no change group (-0.17 to ≤0.20 kg/year), and weight gain group (>0.20 kg/year). The association between annual body weight change and prognosis was replicated in the Kyoto University cohort (n = 247).

In the Hokkaido COPD cohort study, the weight loss group had significantly worse mortality than the other groups, whereas there was no difference in BMI at baseline. In the multivariate analysis, annual body weight change was an independent risk factor for all-cause mortality, which was confirmed in the Kyoto University cohort.

Annual body weight loss is associated with poor prognosis in Japanese patients with COPD, independent of baseline BMI. Longitudinal assessment of body weight is important for the management of COPD.