A knowledge elicitation study to inform the development of a consequence model for Arctic ship evacuations:...

Area of Science:

• Maritime Safety
• Risk Management
• Arctic Operations

Background:

• Arctic maritime operations present unique and complex safety challenges.
• Developing robust life-safety consequence severity models is crucial for effective risk management in these environments.

Purpose of the Study:

• To present the experimental design and data for a life-safety consequence severity model for Arctic ship evacuations.
• To identify factors influencing consequence severity through expert knowledge elicitation.

Main Methods:

• A two-phased mixed-methods design was employed, combining semi-structured interviews and surveys.
• Expert participants (n=16) from the Arctic maritime industry were recruited.
• Thematic analysis of interviews informed survey scenario development, with consequence severity measured as expected fatalities.

Main Results:

• Expert interviews identified key factors influencing life-safety consequence severity in Arctic evacuations.
• Survey data provided quantitative evaluations of consequence severity for various evacuation scenarios.
• Thematic analysis yielded codes with reference and intersection counts, detailing influencing factors.

Conclusions:

• The presented data and methodology support further investigation into Arctic ship evacuation risks.
• This research provides valuable insights for Arctic maritime policy-makers and risk management stakeholders.
• The developed model and data contribute to enhancing the safety of Arctic maritime operations.