An Integrated Biosecurity Risk Assessment Model (IBRAM) For Evaluating the Risk of Import Pathways for the...

Area of Science:

• Biosecurity and Invasive Species Management
• Ecological Risk Assessment
• Computational Modeling

Background:

• Understanding pest arrival pathways is crucial for biosecurity risk analysis.
• Data uncertainty complicates the evaluation of risks associated with invasive species.
• Agencies require robust tools for assessing the establishment and dispersal of invasive species.

Purpose of the Study:

• To present an Integrated Biosecurity Risk Assessment Model (IBRAM) for evaluating invasive species risks.
• To provide a framework for assessing pest entry, establishment, dispersal, and consequences along trade pathways.
• To support biosecurity agencies in managing and mitigating risks from unwanted organisms.

Main Methods:

• Development of the Integrated Biosecurity Risk Assessment Model (IBRAM) framework.
• Extensive use of Bayesian networks (BN), including dynamic components, to model ecological processes.
• Integration of geographic data to provide spatial and temporal outputs for risk parameters.

Main Results:

• IBRAM integrates multiple linked models covering pest entry, spread, habitat suitability, and consequences.
• The model generates spatial and temporal distributions of risk parameters using dynamic Bayesian networks.
• A web-based tool allows users to run simulations, test management scenarios, and allocate resources.

Conclusions:

• IBRAM provides a comprehensive framework for evaluating biosecurity risks associated with invasive species along trade pathways.
• The model and its supporting tool are influential in assessing pathway management efficacy for preventing establishment.
• Case studies demonstrate IBRAM's utility in managing risks from specific pests like the Queensland fruit fly and brown marmorated stink bug.