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COVID-19 Surveillance Updates in US Metropolitan Areas: Dynamic Panel Data Modeling
Theresa B Oehmke1, Charles B Moss2, James F Oehmke3
1Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United States.
JMIR Public Health and Surveillance
|December 9, 2021
Summary
COVID-19 cases surged nationally due to the Delta variant, but metropolitan trends vary. Continued surveillance is crucial as some cities show increasing cases, indicating potential needs for updated public health policies.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
- Infectious Disease Dynamics
Background:
- The US experienced a significant increase in COVID-19 cases in mid-2021, driven by the Delta variant.
- Despite a national peak, some metropolitan areas continue to report high case numbers.
- Metropolitan-level surveillance is essential for identifying resurgences and informing public health responses.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the rate of decline in new COVID-19 cases post-Delta wave in 25 major US metropolitan areas.
- To identify potential resurgences linked to waning vaccine immunity, new variants, or other factors.
- To provide timely data for public health policy adjustments.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of COVID-19 pandemic dynamics in 25 large US metropolitan areas up to September 19, 2021.
- Utilized novel metrics: speed, acceleration, jerk, and 7-day persistence.
- Employed dynamic panel data models with Arellano-Bond regression techniques.
Main Results:
- Average case "speed" decreased from 34 to 29 cases per 100,000 population across the 25 areas.
- Significant variations observed: Miami saw a sharp decline, while Boston, DC, and Detroit experienced increasing "speed" and acceleration.
- Eight of the 25 largest metropolitan areas showed increasing case numbers by September 19, 2021.
Conclusions:
- Epidemiological curves show substantial variation among US metropolitan areas.
- Increasing case trends in some areas highlight the need for ongoing surveillance.
- Waning vaccine effectiveness and emerging variants necessitate continued monitoring and potential policy adjustments.
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