Evaluation of Non-linear Models to Predict Potential Milk Yield of Beef Cows According to Parity Order Under Grazing

This study aimed to evaluate the effect of parity order on milk yield (MY) and composition over time of grazing beef cows and to evaluate non-linear models to describe the lactation curve. Thirty-six pregnant Nellore cows (12 nulliparous, 2 years; 12 primiparous, 3 years; and 12 multiparous, 4-6 years) were included in the study. With calving day assigned as day 0, milking was performed using a milking machine to estimate MY on days 7, 14, 21, 42, 63, 91, 119, 154, and 203. Dummy variable analyses were applied to estimate its effects on MY, composition (kg and percentage), afternoon/morning, and afternoon/total proportions. Since multiparous cows had higher MY than nulliparous and primiparous cows, two different groups were used for lactation curve analysis: Mult (multiparous) and Null/Prim (nulliparous and primiparous). The MY estimated by the last edition of BR-Corte (Nutrient Requirements of Zebu and Crossbred Cattle) equation was compared with the observed values from this study. Five nonlinear models proposed by Wood (WD), Jenkins & Ferrell (JF), Wilmink (WK), Henriques (HR) and Cobby & Le Du (CL) were evaluated. Models were validated using an independent dataset of multiparous and primiparous cows. The estimates for parameters a, b, and c of the CL equation were compared between groups, and the BR-Corte equation used the model identity methodology. Nulliparous and primiparous cows displayed similar MY (P > 0.05); however, multiparous cows had an average MY that is 0.70 kg/day greater than that of nulliparous and primiparous cows (P < 0.05). Milk protein and total solids were higher for multiparous cows (P < 0.05). Effect of days in milking was found for milk fat, protein, and total solids (P < 0.05). The yield of all milk components was higher for multiparous cows than for nulliparous and primiparous cows. The afternoon/morning and afternoon/total proportions of milk production were not affected by parities and days in milking (P > 0.05), with an average of 0.76 and 0.42, respectively. The BR-Corte equation did not correctly estimate the MY (P < 0.05). The equations of WD, WK, and CL had the best estimate of MY for both Mult and Null/Prim datasets. The equations had a very similar Akaike's information criterion with correction and mean square error of prediction.