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Published on: June 23, 2022
On the early detecting of the COVID-19 outbreak
Mohammed Aba Oud1, Muqrin Almuqrin2
1Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Imam Mohammad Ibn Saud Islamic University (IMSIU), Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. maabaoud@imamu.edu.sa.
Introduction:
This paper aims to measure the performance of early detection methods, which are usually used for infectious diseases.
Methodology:
By using real data of confirmed Coronavirus cases from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Italy, the moving epidemic method (MEM) and the moving average cumulative sums (Mov. Avg Cusum) methods are used in our simulation study.
Results:
Our results suggested that the CUSUM method outperforms the MEM in detecting the start of the Coronavirus outbreak.
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