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Do disease epidemics force economic activity underground? International evidence
Aziz N Berdiev1, Rajeev K Goel2,3, James W Saunoris4
1Department of Economics Bryant University Smithfield Rhode Island USA.
Contemporary Economic Policy
|December 13, 2021
Summary
Disease epidemics significantly expand the global underground economy. This informal sector offers accessible goods and services when formal supply chains falter, with reduced enforcement risks during health crises.
Area of Science:
- Economics
- Public Health
- Sociology
Background:
- Disease epidemics disrupt formal supply chains and economic activity.
- The informal or underground economy can act as a buffer during crises.
- Epidemics may divert law enforcement resources, potentially reducing risks for informal economic activities.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the causal relationship between disease epidemics and the global prevalence of the underground economy.
- To quantify the impact of epidemic incidence on informal economic sector growth.
Main Methods:
- Econometric analysis using data from over 125 countries.
- Statistical modeling to assess the correlation between epidemic occurrences and underground economy indicators.
Main Results:
- A significant positive correlation was found between the incidence of disease epidemics and the expansion of the underground economy.
- The findings indicate that epidemics act as a catalyst for the growth of informal economic activities worldwide.
Conclusions:
- Disease epidemics demonstrably contribute to the proliferation of the shadow economy.
- Policy considerations for epidemic preparedness should account for the potential expansion of informal economic activities.
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