Upper gastrointestinal bleeding: predictors of outcome

We reviewed the records of 115 patients treated for upper gastrointestinal (UGI) bleeding on a general surgical and trauma service from January 1981 to June 1984. Clinical variables were analyzed with regard to three outcome criteria: mortality rate, blood transfusion requirements, and need for operation. Endoscopy was performed in all patients, usually within 24 hours of detection of bleeding. Thirty-six patients required greater than or equal to 5 U of blood, 27 patients required an operation for bleeding, and 26 patients (23%) died in the hospital. In 19 patients, death was attributed to the patient's underlying disease; in seven patients, death was due to bleeding or operation. Significant predictors of death were: age greater than or equal to 60 years old (p less than or equal to 0.02), disease in three organ systems (p less than 0.05), 5 U transfusion requirement (p less than 0.001), operation for bleeding necessary (p less than 0.03), lung/liver disease (p less than 0.03), and recent stress of major operation, trauma, or sepsis. Mortality rates were highest for bleeding varices (36%) and lowest for duodenal ulcers (7.7%) and gastric ulcers (15.8%). Endoscopy accurately determined the cause of UGI bleeding in most patients. The data suggest that the unchanging mortality rate for UGI bleeding is largely due to underlying disease or injury for which the success of current treatment is limited.