Projecting global mariculture production and adaptation pathways under climate change

Area of Science:

• Aquaculture and climate change science
• Global marine resource management
• Sustainable food systems

Background:

• Global seafood demand is rising, challenging sustainable supply from fisheries.
• Mariculture (marine aquaculture) offers production growth but faces climate change risks.
• Climate change impacts ocean conditions, affecting mariculture viability.

Purpose of the Study:

• To project global mariculture production under different climate and socio-economic scenarios.
• To assess the influence of ocean warming, suitable farming areas, and aquafeed availability.
• To evaluate the effectiveness of adaptation measures like fishmeal replacement.

Main Methods:

• Utilized a global mariculture production model incorporating environmental and economic factors.
• Modeled 85 marine fish and mollusc species, representing 70% of global production.
• Applied two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) for projections.

Main Results:

• SSP1-2.6 scenario: 17%±5 increase by mid-century, 33%±6 by end-century.
• SSP5-8.5 scenario: 8%±5 increase by mid-century, declining 16%±5 by end-century.
• Over 25% of nations may lose 40%-90% potential production under SSP5-8.5 by mid-century.

Conclusions:

• Climate change poses significant risks to mariculture, especially under high-emissions scenarios.
• Ocean warming and reduced forage fish impact production, particularly for non-feed-based systems.
• Urgent mitigation and tailored adaptation strategies are essential for climate-resilient mariculture.