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Projections for obesity, smoking and hypertension based on multiple imputation
Jaakko Reinikainen1, Tommi Härkänen1, Hanna Tolonen1
1Population Health Unit, Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare, Finland.
Scandinavian Journal of Public Health
|December 14, 2021
Summary
Future health trends can be projected using multiple imputation, a flexible method for predicting disease risk factors. This approach helps in planning public health interventions and resource allocation for better population health outcomes.
Area of Science:
- Public Health
- Biostatistics
- Epidemiology
Background:
- Accurate prediction of future disease burden is essential for effective public health planning and resource allocation.
- Understanding trends in risk factors and health indicators is crucial for proactive prevention strategies.
Purpose of the Study:
- To demonstrate the flexible application of multiple imputation for projecting future prevalences of health indicators.
- To provide a method for anticipating population health challenges and optimizing preventative measures.
Main Methods:
- Utilized data from repeated cross-sectional health surveys (1997-2017).
- Employed multiple imputation by chained equations to simulate future risk factor prevalences.
- Incorporated national population forecasts for age and sex distributions, including covariate projections.
Main Results:
- Obesity prevalence is projected to reach 24% for both men and women by 2025.
- Hypertension and smoking prevalences are expected to decrease, with men consistently showing higher rates.
- The method successfully projected future health indicator prevalences based on historical data.
Conclusions:
- Multiple imputation offers a flexible and accessible method for simulating future health observations.
- This technique aids in forecasting disease risk factor trends for public health preparedness.
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