Uncertainty-Informed Deep Transfer Learning of Perfluoroalkyl and Polyfluoroalkyl Substance Toxicity

Perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) pose a significant hazard because of their widespread industrial uses, environmental persistence, and bioaccumulation. A growing, increasingly diverse inventory of PFAS, including 8163 chemicals, has recently been updated by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. However, with the exception of a handful of well-studied examples, little is known about their human toxicity potential because of the substantial resources required for in vivo toxicity experiments. We tackle the problem of expensive in vivo experiments by evaluating multiple machine learning (ML) methods, including random forests, deep neural networks (DNN), graph convolutional networks, and Gaussian processes, for predicting acute toxicity (e.g., median lethal dose, or LD₅₀) of PFAS compounds. To address the scarcity of toxicity information for PFAS, publicly available datasets of oral rat LD₅₀ for all organic compounds are aggregated and used to develop state-of-the-art ML source models for transfer learning. A total of 519 fluorinated compounds containing two or more C-F bonds with known toxicity are used for knowledge transfer to ensembles of the best-performing source model, DNN, to generate the target models for the PFAS domain with access to uncertainty. This study predicts toxicity for PFAS with a defined chemical structure. To further inform prediction confidence, the transfer-learned model is embedded within a SelectiveNet architecture, where the model is allowed to identify regions of prediction with greater confidence and abstain from those with high uncertainty using a calibrated cutoff rate.