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Published on: November 10, 2023
Voting in a global pandemic: Assessing dueling influences of Covid-19 on turnout
Sara M Constantino1,2,3, Alicia D Cooperman4, Thiago M Q Moreira4
1School of Public and International Affairs Princeton University Princeton NJ United States of America.
Objective:
We investigate the impact of a global health crisis on political behavior. Specifically, we assess the impact of Covid-19 incidence rates, and the impact of temporal and spatial proximity to the crisis, on voter turnout in the 2020 Brazilian municipal elections.
Methods:
We use Ordinary Least Squares and Spatial Durbin Error models to evaluate sub-national variation in municipal-level Covid-19 incidence and voter turnout. We include controls for political, economic, health, and state context.
Results:
Ceteris paribus, increasing deaths in the month leading up to the election from 0.01 to 1 per 1000 people is associated with a 5 percentage point decrease in turnout; higher cases and deaths earlier in the pandemic are generally associated with higher turnout. Covid-19 incidence rates in nearby municipalities affect local turnout in the same directions.
Conclusion:
Higher Covid-19 incidence near the time of the election decreases voter turnout, while incidence farther from the election increases voter turnout.
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