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Ecological dimensions explain the past but do not predict future changes in trust.

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Predicting societal trust changes is challenging. This study found no universal trust decline, with changes being country-specific and difficult to forecast using ecological factors.

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Area of Science:

  • Social Sciences
  • Psychology
  • Sociology

Background:

  • Declining trust and rising cynicism are frequently discussed in research and media.
  • Previous studies primarily focused on explaining trust dynamics rather than predicting them.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To test predictive models of trust change across multiple countries and measurement waves.
  • To evaluate whether ecological predictors explain past trust levels and forecast future trust.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized societal growth curve models to differentiate between- and within-country effects.
  • Employed a train-test split method with data from 1981-2009 to predict trust for 2010-2014.
  • Assessed prediction accuracy against a baseline model.

Main Results:

  • No tested prediction model significantly outperformed a simple baseline model in forecasting future trust.
  • Observed no universal decline in trust; temporal trust changes were country-specific.
  • Resource availability and moral opinion polarization were linked to within-country trust changes: decreased wealth and increased polarization correlated with lower trust.

Conclusions:

  • Ecological theories of trust have limited predictive power for future cultural shifts.
  • Distinguishing between explanatory and predictive models is crucial for understanding trust dynamics.
  • Cultural change, including trust, is highly localized and country-specific.