One-year predictions of delayed reward discounting in the adolescent brain cognitive development study

Delayed reward discounting (DRD) refers to the extent to which an individual devalues a reward based on a temporal delay and is known to be elevated in individuals with substance use disorders and many mental illnesses. DRD has been linked previously with both features of brain structure and function, as well as various behavioral, psychological, and life-history factors. However, there has been little work on the neurobiological and behavioral antecedents of DRD in childhood. This is an important question, as understanding the antecedents of DRD can provide signs of mechanisms in the development of psychopathology. The present study used baseline data from the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development Study (N = 4,042) to build machine learning models to predict DRD at the first follow-up visit, 1 year later. In separate machine learning models, we tested elastic net regression, random forest regression, light gradient boosting regression, and support vector regression. In five-fold cross-validation on the training set, models using an array of questionnaire/task variables were able to predict DRD, with these findings generalizing to a held-out (i.e., "lockbox") test set of 20% of the sample. Key predictive variables were neuropsychological test performance at baseline, socioeconomic status, screen media activity, psychopathology, parenting, and personality. However, models using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-derived brain variables did not reliably predict DRD in either the cross-validation or held-out test set. These results suggest a combination of questionnaire/task variables as antecedents of excessive DRD in late childhood, which may presage the development of problematic substance use in adolescence. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).