Epidemiology of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome in Australia

Since 1982, when the first case of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) was diagnosed in Australia, a total of 373 cases has been reported to the NHMRC Special Unit in AIDS Epidemiology and Clinical Research to December 19, 1986. Analysis of the data shows that 70% of cases were diagnosed in NSW and of all cases 88% were found to be in homosexual or bisexual men, with the majority aged between 30 and 39 years. Opportunistic infections were found in nearly three-quarters of cases. A mathematical model which has been developed predicts that 1000 cases will have been diagnosed by mid-1988 and nearly that many again in 1990 alone. The absence of a treatment or vaccine, the likelihood that current Australian resources will be inadequate to deal with the predicted number of cases, and the urgent need to establish measures that are aimed at controlling the extent of the disease are emphasized.