Machine learning-based prediction of drug and ligand binding in BCL-2 variants through molecular dynamics

Venetoclax is a BH3 (BCL-2 Homology 3) mimetic used to treat leukemia and lymphoma by inhibiting the anti-apoptotic BCL-2 protein thereby promoting apoptosis of cancerous cells. Acquired resistance to Venetoclax via specific variants in BCL-2 is a major problem for the successful treatment of cancer patients. Replica exchange molecular dynamics (REMD) simulations combined with machine learning were used to define the average structure of variants in aqueous solution to predict changes in drug and ligand binding in BCL-2 variants. The variant structures all show shifts in residue positions that occlude the binding groove, and these are the primary contributors to drug resistance. Correspondingly, we established a method that can predict the severity of a variant as measured by the inhibitory constant (K_i) of Venetoclax by measuring the structure deviations to the binding cleft. In addition, we also applied machine learning to the phi and psi angles of the amino acid backbone to the ensemble of conformations that demonstrated a generalizable method for drug resistant predictions of BCL-2 proteins that elucidates changes where detailed understanding of the structure-function relationship is less clear.