Multi-Phase CT-Based Radiomics Nomogram for Discrimination Between Pancreatic Serous Cystic Neoplasm From Mucinous...

This study aimed to develop and verify a multi-phase (MP) computed tomography (CT)-based radiomics nomogram to differentiate pancreatic serous cystic neoplasms (SCNs) from mucinous cystic neoplasms (MCNs), and to compare the diagnostic efficacy of radiomics models for different phases of CT scans.

A total of 170 patients who underwent surgical resection between January 2011 and December 2018, with pathologically confirmed pancreatic cystic neoplasms (SCN=115, MCN=55) were included in this single-center retrospective study. Radiomics features were extracted from plain scan (PS), arterial phase (AP), and venous phase (VP) CT scans. Algorithms were performed to identify the optimal features to build a radiomics signature (Radscore) for each phase. All features from these three phases were analyzed to develop the MP-Radscore. A combined model comprised the MP-Radscore and imaging features from which a nomogram was developed. The accuracy of the nomogram was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration tests, and decision curve analysis.

For each scan phase, 1218 features were extracted, and the optimal ones were selected to construct the PS-Radscore (11 features), AP-Radscore (11 features), and VP-Radscore (12 features). The MP-Radscore (14 features) achieved better performance based on ROC curve analysis than any single phase did [area under the curve (AUC), training cohort: MP-Radscore 0.89, PS-Radscore 0.78, AP-Radscore 0.83, VP-Radscore 0.85; validation cohort: MP-Radscore 0.88, PS-Radscore 0.77, AP-Radscore 0.83, VP-Radscore 0.84]. The combination nomogram performance was excellent, surpassing those of all other nomograms in both the training cohort (AUC, 0.91) and validation cohort (AUC, 0.90). The nomogram also performed well in the calibration and decision curve analyses.

Radiomics for arterial and venous single-phase models outperformed the plain scan model. The combination nomogram that incorporated the MP-Radscore, tumor location, and cystic number had the best discriminatory performance and showed excellent accuracy for differentiating SCN from MCN.