Modelling varicella vaccination - What does a lack of surge in herpes zoster incidence tell us about exogenous...

For decades, assessments of the impact of universal varicella vaccination on the epidemiology of varicella and herpes zoster (HZ) have been made using mathematical modelling. Decreased virus circulation and the resulting diminished exogenous boosting have been predicted to lead to a surge in HZ incidence. Lately, the exogenous boosting hypothesis has been challenged due to a lack of an extensive surge in HZ incidence in countries with, by now long-standing universal varicella vaccination.

In a deterministic compartmental transmission model of varicella zoster virus disease, we model various levels and duration of protection from boosting to explore the impact of successful childhood varicella vaccination on HZ incidence.

Considering total HZ incidence, lifelong and strong protection from boosting give a stable incidence of HZ for about 60 years followed by a decline, whereas lifelong intermediate protection leads to a decline. So does weak protection of intermediate duration. Full and short protection, lead to a small surge, while full and intermediate protection lead to the largest HZ surge. HZ incidence by age group show that total incidence is the result of opposing increasing and decreasing trends in the various age groups over time.

The absence of an extensive surge in HZ incidence after varicella vaccination can, especially during the first 20-30 years, occur in either strong, intermediate or weak boosting scenarios. The impact seems to depend on an interplay of the protective level and duration of the protection in determining the basic reactivation rate and the proportion of the population that is susceptible at the start of vaccination. However, the picture depends on whether the entire population or specific age groups are observed.