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Quantifying the Endogeneity in Online Donations
Peng Wang1,2, Jinyi Li3, Yinjie Ma1,2
1School of Business, East China University of Science and Technology, Shanghai 200237, China.
Entropy (Basel, Switzerland)
|December 24, 2021
Summary
Nearly 70-90% of online donations in charitable crowdfunding are endogenous, driven by social network sharing. This endogeneity measure remains stable throughout a campaign, despite declining donation numbers over time.
Area of Science:
- Social Sciences
- Computational Social Science
- Network Science
Background:
- Charitable crowdfunding offers vital public support for individuals facing unforeseen hardships.
- Understanding the drivers of crowdfunding success is crucial for maximizing aid to those in need.
Purpose of the Study:
- To quantify the degree of endogeneity in online donations within charitable crowdfunding campaigns.
- To analyze the dynamics of endogenous and exogenous factors influencing fundraising success.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a unique dataset of 210,907 charitable crowdfunding projects from Qingsong Chou (Oct 2015 - June 2020).
- Calibrated three distinct Hawkes processes to daily online donation event data for each campaign.
- Estimated the branching ratio to measure the level of endogeneity.
Main Results:
- Charitable crowdfunding operates in a sub-critical state, with 70-90% of online donations being endogenous.
- Endogeneity, a measure of social network influence, remained stable throughout campaign lifecycles.
- Despite a rapid decline in fundraising amount, donation count, and donor numbers post-launch, endogeneity persisted.
Conclusions:
- Online donations in charitable crowdfunding are predominantly driven by endogenous, self-exciting processes.
- The findings provide a quantitative method for distinguishing endogenous and exogenous dynamics in complex systems.
- Results deepen the understanding of online fundraising dynamics and social influence.
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