Hypothetical Control of Fatal Quarrel Variability

Area of Science:

• Complex Systems Science
• Statistical Physics
• Social Network Analysis

Background:

• Disasters and attacks cause mass casualties.
• Casualty distributions often follow Pareto's inverse power laws (IPLs).

Purpose of the Study:

• To model deaths from terrorist attacks using a double Pareto probability density function (PDF).
• To explore the role of social network complexity in casualty distributions.
• To apply fractional calculus to model and control such events.

Main Methods:

• Fitting a double Pareto PDF to terrorist attack fatality data.
• Utilizing fractional probability calculus and fractional Fokker-Planck equations (FFPE).
• Parameterizing a control process to temper Lévy processes with collective potentials.

Main Results:

• The double Pareto PDF effectively models deaths from terrorist attacks.
• Casualty distribution is linked to social network complexity.
• The FFPE steady-state solution fits a 40-year fatal quarrel (FQ) dataset.

Conclusions:

• Fractional calculus provides a framework for understanding disaster casualty distributions.
• Social network complexity is a key factor influencing casualty patterns.
• The developed model offers insights into mitigating disaster impacts.