Sustainable Land-Use Allocation Model at a Watershed Level under Uncertainty

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Ecology
• Regional Planning

Background:

• Traditional land-use models often overlook crucial uncertainties like randomness, interval, and fuzziness.
• Existing models struggle to comprehensively integrate socio-economic and ecological factors in land-use planning.
• Watershed land-use systems present complex, dynamic, and multi-objective challenges.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop an advanced land-use allocation model that incorporates interval, fuzzy, and random uncertainties.
• To propose an interval fuzzy two-stage random land-use allocation model (IFTSP-LUAM) for sustainable basin-level development.
• To provide a robust framework for balancing socio-economic development with ecological protection in land-use planning.

Main Methods:

• Development of a novel land-use allocation model integrating socio-economic and environmental systems under uncertainty.
• Application of the interval fuzzy two-stage random land-use allocation model (IFTSP-LUAM) to a real-world watershed.
• Incorporation of multi-stage, multi-objective, dynamic, and complex characteristics into the model.

Main Results:

• The IFTSP-LUAM effectively accounts for randomness, interval, and fuzziness in land-use systems.
• The model quantifies the trade-off between economic gains and environmental costs.
• Application in the Nansihu River Basin yielded suitable land-use patterns and emission scenarios.

Conclusions:

• The developed model offers a comprehensive approach to land-use planning under uncertainty.
• IFTSP-LUAM provides valuable decision support for balancing development and ecological conservation.
• The findings aid policymakers in formulating effective land-use strategies for watershed management.