Redefining Tumor Burden in Patients with Intermediate-Stage Hepatocellular Carcinoma: The Seven-Eleven Criteria

For patients with intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), the definition of high tumor burden remains controversial. This study aimed to compare the prognostic value of different criteria of tumor burden in patients with intermediate-stage HCC undergoing transarterial chemoembolization (TACE).

From 2007 to 2019, 632 treatment-naive patients with intermediate-stage HCC undergoing TACE were retrospectively enrolled. We compared different criteria of tumor burden in discriminating radiologic response and survival, including up-to-7, up-to-11, 5-7, 7 lesions criteria, and newly proposed 7-11 criteria.

The proportions of patients classified as high tumor burden were varied by different criteria. Among the 5 criteria, 7-11 criteria have the best performance to discriminate complete response (CR) and overall survival (OS) after TACE. In patients with low, intermediate, and high tumor burden classified by 7-11 criteria, the CR rate was 21, 12, and 2.5%, respectively (p < 0.001), and the median OS was 33.1, 22.3, and 11.9 months, respectively (p < 0.001). By multivariate analysis, 7-11 criteria were significantly associated with CR (intermediate vs. high burden, odds ratio = 4.617, p = 0.002; low vs. high burden, odds ratio = 8.675, p < 0.001) and OS (intermediate vs. high burden, hazard ratio = 0.650, p < 0.001; low vs. high burden, hazard ratio = 0.520, p < 0.001). Seven to 11 criteria also had the lowest corrected Akaike information criteria, highest homogeneity value, and highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve in predicting 1-, 2-, and 3-year mortality among all criteria.

Conventional definitions of tumor burden were not optimal for patients with intermediate HCC. The new 7-11 criteria had the best discriminative power in predicting radiologic response and survival in patients with intermediate-stage HCC undergoing TACE.