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Most probable transitions from metastable to oscillatory regimes in a carbon cycle system
Wei Wei1, Jianyu Hu1, Jianyu Chen1
1Center for Mathematical Sciences, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, Hubei 430074, China.
Abstract:
Global climate changes are related to the ocean's store of carbon. We study a carbonate system of the upper ocean, which has metastable and oscillatory regimes, under small random fluctuations. We calculate the most probable transition path via a geometric minimum action method in the context of the large deviation theory. By examining the most probable transition paths from metastable to oscillatory regimes for various external carbon input rates, we find two different transition patterns, which gives us an early warning sign for the dramatic change in the carbonate state of the ocean.
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