Construction of a prediction model for drug removal rate in hemodialysis based on chemical structures

In designing drug dosing for hemodialysis patients, the removal rate (RR) of the drug by hemodialysis is important. However, acquiring the RR is difficult, and there is a need for an estimation method that can be used in clinical settings. In this study, the RR predictive model was constructed using the RR of known drugs by quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) analysis. Drugs were divided into a model construction drug set (75%) and a model validation drug set (25%). The RR was collected from 143 medicines. The objective variable (RR) and chemical structural characteristics (descriptors) of the drug (explanatory variable) were used to construct a prediction model using partial least squares (PLS) regression and artificial neural network (ANN) analyses. The determination coefficients in the PLS and ANN methods were 0.586 and 0.721 for the model validation drug set, respectively. QSAR analysis successfully constructed dialysis RR prediction models that were comparable or superior to those using pharmacokinetic parameters. Considering that the RR dataset contains potential errors, we believe that this study has achieved the most reliable RR prediction accuracy currently available. These predictive RR models can be achieved using only the chemical structure of the drug. This model is expected to be applied at the time of hemodialysis.