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Multistability of a Two-Dimensional Map Arising in an Influenza Model
Yu-Jhe Huang1, Hsuan Te Huang1, Jonq Juang1
1Department of Applied Mathematics, National Yang Ming Chiao Tung University, Hsinchu, 300 Taiwan, ROC.
This study analyzes a seasonal influenza model with complex dynamics. We found that population heterogeneity can lead to unpredictable outcomes, including chaotic behavior, in the disease spread.
Area of Science:
- Mathematical modeling
- Epidemiology
- Dynamical systems
Background:
- Seasonal influenza models are crucial for understanding disease dynamics.
- Nonsmooth dynamical systems offer insights into complex biological processes.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze a novel nonsmooth two-dimensional map derived from a seasonal influenza model.
- To investigate the complex dynamics, including chaos and multistability, exhibited by this map.
Main Methods:
- Development and analysis of a nonsmooth two-dimensional map.
- Mathematical analysis of fixed points, periodic orbits, and chaotic attractors.
- Rigorous proof of coexistence of stable states.
Main Results:
- The map exhibits diverse dynamics: fixed points, periodic points, chaotic attractors, and multistability.
- Bistable states include coexistence of stable fixed points and period-three points, or period-three points and chaotic attractors.
- Rigorous proof of coexistence between stable equilibrium and stable period-three points was achieved for specific parameter ranges.
Conclusions:
- Population heterogeneity significantly drives the complexity and unpredictability of influenza dynamics.
- Complex dynamics are most pronounced at intermediate basic reproduction numbers with substantial seasonal state changes.
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