Smoothing a reference pathway based on discrete exogenous projections

Area of Science:

• Integrated assessment modeling
• Scenario analysis
• Time series analysis

Background:

• Integrated assessment studies and scenario analysis often require models to follow exogenous pathways, such as the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways.
• Exogenous pathways typically provide data for key variables like GDP and energy consumption at five- or ten-year intervals.
• A need exists for yearly smooth pathways consistent with these discrete intervals.

Purpose of the Study:

• To provide a method for generating smooth yearly pathways from discrete, multi-year exogenous data.
• To ensure temporal consistency in integrated assessment models and scenario analyses.

Main Methods:

• Development of a novel approach for smoothing discrete time series data.
• Application of the smoothing method to generate yearly data from decadal or quinquennial intervals.

Main Results:

• A validated method for creating smooth yearly pathways from limited-interval exogenous data.
• Demonstration of the approach using data from the World Energy Outlook 2019.

Conclusions:

• The proposed method effectively generates smooth yearly pathways consistent with discrete exogenous data.
• This technique enhances the temporal resolution and consistency of integrated assessment models and scenario analyses.