Long-term prognosis of patients with metabolic (dysfunction)-associated fatty liver disease by non-invasive methods

Non-invasive assessment of fibrosis is predictive of the prognosis of non-alcoholic and alcoholic fatty liver disease but this has not been demonstrated in metabolic (dysfunction)-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD).

We assessed the prognosis of non-invasive methods in patients with MAFLD.

All consecutive patients with MAFLD, with liver stiffness measurements, FIB-4 (Fibrosis-4), and LIVERFASt were included in this cohort study. The primary endpoint was analysed by the Kaplan-Meier method and secondary endpoints were estimated by Gray test or logistic regression. Factors independently associated with overall mortality and morbidity were identified by a multivariate Cox model. The prognostic performance of non-invasive methods for prediction of mortality was evaluated by Harrell's C-index and for morbidity by area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC).

A total of 1239 patients with MAFLD were analysed (median age 56 years, male 56.5%, median body mass index 31 kg/m² and obesity 59%). The median follow-up was 62 months [42-91 months] and 73 (5.8%) subjects died. Baseline results of non-invasive methods were correlated with overall and liver-related mortalities (P < 0.001), and with all-cause and liver-related outcomes (P < 0.001). A predictive model (composed of clinical parameters and liver stiffness measurement, FIB-4 or LIVERFASt) was an excellent predictor of overall and liver-related mortalities (C-index 0.8-0.9), and a good predictor of overall and liver-related morbidities (AUC 0.72-0.74).

Baseline liver stiffness measurement, FIB-4 and LIVERFASt can predict global and liver-related mortality and morbidity in patients with MAFLD and could be prognosis endpoints in clinical trials.