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Can Eco-Evo Theory Explain Population Cycles in the Field?
The American Naturalist
|January 3, 2022
Summary
Eco-evo theory explains field population cycles by incorporating fluctuating selection for resource resistance. This ecological-evolutionary model accurately predicts insect outbreaks, unlike eco-only models relying on chance.
Area of Science:
- Ecology
- Evolutionary Biology
- Population Dynamics
Background:
- Consumer-resource theory suggests interactions alone drive population cycles.
- Eco-evo theory posits fluctuating selection for resource resistance also drives cycles.
- Previous eco-evo support largely from laboratory studies.
Purpose of the Study:
- To determine if eco-evo theory can explain field-based population cycles.
- To compare eco-evo and eco-only models using Lymantria dispar outbreak data.
Main Methods:
- Statistical comparison of eco-evo and eco-only models.
- Utilized data on Lymantria dispar outbreak cycles and baculovirus epizootics.
- Assessed model predictive accuracy under varying host resistance.
Main Results:
- Both models require high host resistance variation to explain epizootic data.
- Eco-evo models with high host variation accurately predicted outbreak cycles.
- Eco-only models with high host variation required high stochasticity, leading to inaccurate predictions.
Conclusions:
- Eco-evo models provide a robust explanation for field population cycles.
- This study offers statistically significant evidence for eco-evo theory in natural settings.
- Incorporating evolutionary dynamics improves understanding of population cycles.
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