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Inferring the effective start dates of non-pharmaceutical interventions during COVID-19 outbreaks

Ilia Kohanovski1, Uri Obolski2, Yoav Ram3

  • 1School of Computer Science, Reichman University, Herzliya 4610101 Israel.

International Journal of Infectious Diseases : IJID : Official Publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases
|January 5, 2022
PubMed
Abstract

Insights

The effective start dates for non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) against COVID-19 often lag behind official announcements, potentially underestimating their true impact on pandemic control.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Public Health Policy
  • Mathematical Modeling

Background:

  • Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) like lockdowns were widely used in early 2020 to curb COVID-19 transmission.
  • These measures appeared effective overall, but their precise impact may be influenced by implementation timing.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate discrepancies between official and effective start dates of NPIs.
  • To assess how these timing differences affect estimations of NPI impact on COVID-19 spread.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized SEIR models fitted to COVID-19 case data from 12 regions.
  • Inferred effective intervention start dates and compared them to official implementation dates.
  • Estimated the impact of NPIs using inferred model parameters.

Main Results:

  • Effective start dates for NPIs were frequently later than officially declared.
  • For instance, an Italian lockdown announced March 11th had an inferred effective start date around March 17th.
  • Underestimating NPI impact occurs when official, rather than effective, start dates are used in analyses.

Conclusions:

  • Significant differences between official and effective NPI start dates are common.
  • Ignoring these timing discrepancies can lead to underestimation of NPI effectiveness.
  • This underestimation may prompt premature or excessive escalation of public health interventions.
Keywords:
3,494COVID-19NPISEIRWord countepidemicinfectious diseasepublic health

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