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International COVID-19 mortality forecast visualization: covidcompare.io
Samir Akre1,2, Patrick Y Liu1, Joseph R Friedman1,3
1Medical Informatics Home Area, University of California, Los Angeles, California, USA.
JAMIA Open
|January 6, 2022
Summary
COVID-19 mortality forecasting models are numerous and difficult to compare. Covidcompare.io is a new web tool that allows for the comparison of these international models, aiding public health decision-making.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
- Data Science
Background:
- Thousands of COVID-19 mortality forecasts exist, varying in methods and presentation.
- Comparing these diverse models is challenging for policymakers and public health officials.
- A need exists for a standardized tool to evaluate forecast performance.
Purpose of the Study:
- To describe the development and usability of covidcompare.io.
- To provide a platform for comparing international COVID-19 mortality forecasting models.
- To offer insights into model performance throughout the pandemic.
Main Methods:
- Construction of the covidcompare.io web tool.
- Inclusion of numerous COVID-19 mortality forecasts.
- Usability assessment using the Post-Study System Usability Questionnaire with public health professionals.
Main Results:
- The covidcompare.io tool was launched in December 2020 and attracted 4600 unique visitors from 85 countries by June 2021.
- A formal usability study indicated high overall usability among public health professionals.
- The tool facilitates comparison and performance insight for international COVID-19 mortality forecasts.
Conclusions:
- Covidcompare.io is an impactful tool for comparing international COVID-19 mortality forecasting models.
- The platform enhances the ability of policymakers to understand and utilize forecast data.
- Usability assessments confirm the tool's effectiveness for its intended audience.
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