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Updated: Oct 7, 2025

Predicting the Effectiveness of Population Replacement Strategy Using Mathematical Modeling
Published on: July 4, 2007
A population structure-sensitive mathematical model assessing the effects of vaccination during the third surge of
Pablo Jiménez-Rodríguez1, Gustavo A Muñoz-Fernández2, José C Rodrigo-Chocano3
1Departamento de Matemática Aplicada, Campus Duques de Soria, Universidad de Valladolid, 42004 Soria, Spain.
Abstract:
We provide a non-autonomous mathematical model to describe some of the most relevant parameters associated to the COVID-19 pandemic, such as daily and cumulative deaths, active cases, and cumulative incidence, among others. We will take into consideration the ways in which people from four different age ranges react to the virus. Using an appropriate transmission function, we estimate the impact of the third surge of COVID-19 in Italy. Also, we assess two different vaccination programmes. In one of them, a single shot is administered to all citizens over 16 years old before second shots are available. In the second model, first and second shots are administered to each citizen within, approximately, 20 days of time-gap.
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