Extrapolation as a Default Strategy in Pediatric Drug Development

Pediatric drug development lags adult development by about 8 years (Mulugeta et al. in Pediatr Clin 64(6):1185-1196, 2017). In such context, many incentives, regulations, and innovative techniques have been proposed to address the disparity for pediatric patients. One such strategy is extrapolation of efficacy from a reference population. Extrapolation is currently justified by providing evidence in support of the effective use of drugs in children when the course of the disease and the expected treatment response would be sufficiently similar in the pediatric and reference population. This paper's position is that, despite uncertainties, pediatric drug development programs should initially assume some degree of extrapolation. The degree to which extrapolation can be used lies along a continuum representing the uncertainties to be addressed through generation of new pediatric evidence. In addressing these uncertainties, the extrapolation strategy should reflect the level of tolerable uncertainty concerning the decision to expose a child to the risks of a new drug. This judgment about the level of tolerable uncertainty should vary with the context (e.g., disease severity, existing therapeutic options) and can be embedded into pediatric drug development archetypes to ascertain the extent of studies needed and whether simultaneous development for adults and adolescents be considered.