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Weather Patterns Associated with DON Levels in Norwegian Spring Oat Grain: A Functional Data Approach
Anne-Grete Roer Hjelkrem1, Heidi Udnes Aamot2, Morten Lillemo3
1Division of Food Production and Society, Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research (NIBIO), 1431 Ås, Norway.
Plants (Basel, Switzerland)
|January 11, 2022
Summary
Predicting deoxynivalenol (DON) contamination in Norwegian oats is possible using weather data. Warmer sowing weather and cooler, wetter conditions before flowering are linked to higher DON levels.
Area of Science:
- Agricultural Science
- Plant Pathology
- Mycotoxicology
Background:
- Fusarium graminearum is a primary producer of deoxynivalenol (DON) in Norwegian oats.
- High DON levels in oat grains are occasionally observed, influenced by weather conditions around flowering.
- Predicting DON contamination risk using weather data is crucial for oat quality management.
Purpose of the Study:
- To identify weather patterns associated with increased deoxynivalenol (DON) levels in Norwegian oat grains.
- To develop a model for predicting oat phenological growth stages, including flowering time.
- To assess the utility of functional data analysis for understanding DON development.
Main Methods:
- Functional data analysis of weather time series data linked to DON content.
- Development of a mathematical model to predict phenological growth stages in Norwegian spring oats.
- Comparison of weather patterns between oat fields with high and low DON levels.
Main Results:
- Weather patterns from approximately three weeks pre-flowering onwards were significantly associated with DON content.
- Oat fields with elevated DON levels exhibited warmer weather during sowing.
- Lower temperatures and higher relative humidity or rainfall prior to flowering were linked to increased DON levels.
Conclusions:
- Functional data analysis is an effective tool for identifying weather-dependent risk factors for DON development in oats.
- Predictive models based on weather data can aid in managing DON contamination in oat production.
- Understanding the impact of specific weather conditions on DON accumulation is vital for ensuring grain safety.
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