Extremity Soft Tissue Sarcoma: A Multi-Institutional Validation of Prognostic Nomograms

Prognostic nomograms for patients with resected extremity soft tissue sarcoma (STS) include the Sarculator and Memorial Sloan Kettering (MSKCC) nomograms. We sought to validate these two nomograms within a large, modern, multi-institutional cohort of resected primary extremity STS patients.

Resected primary extremity STS patients from 2000 to 2017 were identified across nine high-volume U.S. institutions. Predicted 5- and 10-year overall survival (OS) and distant metastases cumulative incidence (DMCI), and 4-, 8-, and 12-year disease-specific survival (DSS) were calculated with Sarculator and MSKCC nomograms, respectively. Predicted survival probabilities stratified in quintiles were compared in calibration plots to observed survival assessed by Kaplan-Meier estimates. Cumulative incidence was estimated for DMCI. Harrell's concordance index (C-index) assessed discriminative ability of nomograms.

A total of 1326 patients underwent resection of primary extremity STS. Common histologies included: undifferentiated pleomorphic sarcoma (35%), fibrosarcoma (13%), and leiomyosarcoma (9%). Median tumor size was 8.0 cm (IQR 4.5-13.0). Tumor grade distribution was: Grade 1 (13%), Grade 2 (9%), Grade 3 (78%). Median OS was 172 months, with estimated 5- and 10-year OS of 70% and 58%. C-indices for 5- and 10-year OS (Sarculator) were 0.72 (95% CI 0.70-0.75) and 0.73 (95% CI 0.70-0.75), and 0.72 (95% CI 0.69-0.75) for 5- and 10-year DMCI. C-indices for 4-, 8-, and 12-year DSS (MSKCC) were 0.71 (95% CI 0.68-0.75). Calibration plots showed good prognostication across all outcomes.

Sarculator and MSKCC nomograms demonstrated good prognostic ability for survival and recurrence outcomes in a modern, multi-institutional validation cohort of resected primary extremity STS patients. External validation of these nomograms supports their ongoing incorporation into clinical practice.